---
title: The Iran Conflict and Your Investments
description: How the ongoing Iran conflict impacts investments and why staying diversified and disciplined is crucial for long-term growth. Learn from historical market reactions to Middle East conflicts.
image: https://nautilus.net.nz/hubfs/2.%20Blog/2026/03%20-%20Iran%20War%20and%20your%20investments/Crises%20-%20SandP%20500%20-%201987%20to%202025.png
---
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11 March 2026
# The Iran Conflict and Your Investments
[Investment](https://nautilus.net.nz/nautilus-blog/tag/investment)
[News](https://nautilus.net.nz/nautilus-blog/tag/news)
### The Iran war - we've been here before
[](https://nautilus.net.nz/)
#### The current Iran war - media driving clicks
When global news headlines focus on conflict and war, as they are now with the current conflict involving Iran, it’s natural to look at your KiwiSaver or investment balance and feel a jolt of concern. Rising oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and dramatic news cycles can all create the sense that *this time is different*. For many media outlets, there is a strong incentive to emphasise dramatic or catastrophic angles because this drives ‘clicks’ and advertising revenue.
But history suggests otherwise. In fact, one of the clearest examples of how markets react to conflict in the Middle East comes from more than 30 years ago, at a time when the news felt every bit as frightening as today.
#### The previous Gulf War - what actually happened
Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait on 2 August 1990 sent oil prices soaring and equity markets sharply lower. For investors at the time, it felt like the beginning of something far worse.
- Oil prices surged more than 30% within a few days
- The S&P 500 fell more than -10% in the weeks that followed\*
- Headlines warned of war, energy shortages, and global recession
Yet as the conflict first escalated and then eventually resolved, markets recovered far quicker than many expected. Twelve months later, the S&P 500 was up 12.8%. After 24 months, it was up 27.2%. After 36 months, it was up 38.3% with patient investors who didn't panic sell or switch funds reaping these gains.
And that pattern hasn’t just happened once, it has repeated across four decades of Middle East–related conflicts. Markets absorb shocks and move forward.
\*All return calculations are based on monthly returns of the S&P 500 Index (total return) and include the return of the month the conflict commenced.
### Crises & financial markets
#### The broader pattern we see again and again
In a [recent article, Ben Brinkerhoff at Consilium](https://www.consilium.co.nz/news-insights/a-look-back-at-when-the-world-feared-the-worst/) provides an excellent analysis of the impact of major Middle East conflicts on financial markets, and the importance of staying focused on long-term goals. If you are pushed for time, we've summarised the main points and lessons here for you.
History shows a rhythm to how markets respond during conflicts and geopolitical stress:
- **Initial turbulence** as uncertainty peaks
- **Settling** once the range of outcomes becomes clearer
- **A return to long‑term growth** as fundamentals reassert themselves
Even long-running conflicts have not stopped markets from moving higher over time. Companies adapt, supply chains shift, and economies continue to function.
#### The calm approach wins in the end
Markets don’t ignore risk, they absorb it. Jumping in and out during dramatic news cycles has historically been far more damaging than staying diversified and disciplined.
If you’re feeling uneasy, focus on the principles that have worked across multiple decades:
- Stay diversified
- Stay disciplined
- Stay focused on your long-term goals
If you already have a KiwiSaver or Investment plan and your goal(s) &/or situation haven't changed, then there is generally no need to make changes to your investments. Otherwise, it may be a good time idea to get professional financial advice.
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General information only, not financial advice. No liability accepted for errors or reliance. If needed, seek professional advice.
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